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June 19, 2004

インフレ対策

私自身はインフレ対策で、外債(米国)、外貨(米国)を
少々持っています。

株式投資自体がインフレ対策のつもりで始めましたけど、
Pletsさんの言われるように、初期段階では下がる気が
して来ました。初期段階を過ぎればインフレに対応すると
考えていましたが、ハイパーインフレになると日本中が
混乱しますので、やっぱり株価は下がるのでしょうか?

もう少し対策を考えなければダメですね。
年金対策とインフレ対策を両立させる妙手を考えなければ。

取り敢えずはインフレになれば、金利が上昇します。
金利が上昇すると企業業績が落ち込みます。
やっぱり株価は下がりそうですね。

金利が上がると為替は円高になるでしょう。
円高になると輸出企業に影響がでる。
ただし企業も馬鹿ではないので、前より円高に強い体質に
変わりつつあります。
ただ投資家の方が変わっていないので、輸出企業の
株価は下がるのでしょうね。

株式でインフレ対策をするならば、資源株って感じでしょうか?

その他の方法は次回に書きます。
皆さんのご意見も募集中です。宜しくお願いします。

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Comments

インフレっすか、ワタシは、
よくこういう言い方するっす。
額面保証でっか?実質(価値)保証でっか?
だいたいの人は、キョトンとしとります。
年金だって、払えんとは絶対いいよりません。
なぜって、いわずと知れた決戦兵器を、そうっす。
あいつらは、印刷機もっとりまっさかい。
最終兵器で、額面保証だけは、するっしょ。
ハイパーインフレになったら、なったで、
額面保証をした文句を言うなで終わりっしょ。
こんな手を使えるのは・・・あいつらっしょ。
自分でスイッチいれるか、親分にスイッチ押されっか、
どっちかっしょ・・・

ハイパーインフレの初期は、株価↓の可能性高い
おもいますなり。(うまく言えんが、きっと)
でも、価値は回復するとおもってます。
でなきゃ、株なんて持ってられんですなり。
じゃけん、トヨタやSONY等の
世界市場でまんべんなく稼いでる
NY、ロンドンなどに上場しとるモンの
価値ちゅうのは、国内にしか市場を持たない
上場モンより、最後まで、価値残る可能性あるんでは?
おもっとります。
ここんとこが、戦後の円切り替え・預金封鎖の頃と
大きく違っとるとこやおもいますなり。
トヨタやSONY等は、円・ドル・ユーロで
貨幣評価しちょりますが、ハイパーインフレん時、
こういうモンは、どない評価されるか。一度、
聞いてみたいですなり。
外貨や外債・外国株を持ってるのに、近いモンある気が
するんなり。
ど素人のカン違い言われたらそれまでっすが・・・

Posted by: ぽじずれ | June 20, 2004 12:59 AM

ぽじずれさん、こんにちは。

>額面保証でっか?実質(価値)保証でっか?

私は実質保証で考えています。
ぽじずれさんと同じ様に考えますね。

インフレ対策はちょっと難しい話なので
後日に私なりの考えを記事にするつもりです。
とはいえ、話を切るつもりはないので、
良いお考えがあれば教えていただけますでしょうか?

Posted by: のほほん | June 20, 2004 05:28 PM

こんばんわ~です。
突然なのですが、インフレ対策と、のほほんさんが
書かれていたので、ちょとだけご確認させてくださいませ~

のほほんさんの想定されているインフレは、
通常のインフレでしょうか?
それとも、デフォルトなどの際に見られるような
ハイパーインフレのようなものでしょうか?

ハイパーインフレのようなものでしたら、
のほほんさんのおっしゃるように、
外貨・現物資産・資源株が有利かと思います。

また、「ハイパーインフレが沈静化」してきた際には、
国家がつぶれても生き残れるような企業に投資するのが
良いのかとも思います。

ですので、現段階で出来ることは、
現在の円高の時点で、余裕資金で外貨や金
(金はもうすでに高くなってしまっていますが・・)を
購入しておき、さらに資金に余裕のある方は、
持ち家を購入したり・・・というのもありかもしれないです。

・・・ハイパーインフレネタを見ましたので、
思わずカキコしてしまいました・・・

ズブの素人のカキコでかなり怪しい内容ですが
どうぞご容赦くださいませ~

Posted by: 塩漬け姉さん | June 23, 2004 12:22 AM

塩漬け姉さん、連続カキコ有難う御座います。

インフレかハイパーインフレかですが
インフレの対策は出来そうですので、
ハイパーインフレについてです。
この対策は難しいです。
もっか勉強中です。

ついでに私の考え方ですが、
私の場合想定できる最悪の状態に対応する
事を考えるようにしています。
例えばですが、未だに私の周りに
景気さえ良くなってくれれば何とかなるって
言う人がいます。
私はダメですね。この10年来は景気が悪くなる
って想定して、経営判断をしてきました。
有り難い事にこの10年で売上は2倍以上に・・・。
自慢話みたいでかっこ悪いですね(苦笑)。

簡単に言えば、石橋を叩いて渡るです。
ハイパーインフレの可能性を捨てきれない
のですよね。
塩漬け姉さんはどう思われますか?
逆に質問をしてすいません。

Posted by: のほほん | June 23, 2004 12:50 AM

私もハイパーインフレはそのうちやってくるのだと
考えています。

今の借金まみれの国の状態を見ると、何だか
嫌な悪寒がしてしまうからです。 
(しかも何とかしないと・・・という気持ちが
もうひとつ伝わってこない・・・)

しかしながら、以前からやばいやばいと言われ続けて
一向に倒れなかった不思議の国の日本。
今後もしばらくは大丈夫なのかもしれないですが、
東南海地震や富士山の大火災などが来たら本当に
やばいかもしれません。

それはそうと、ハイパーインフレの本の中などで、
ハイパーインフレになって一番辛い思いをされるのは、
郵○貯○や ○行にお金を預けていたり、
○本○債を買ってしまった人々や
企業などだというお話をたまに目にします。

しかしながら、ハイパーインフレも悪いばかりではなく、
いい思いをする方も多いようです。
固定金利で多額の借金をしている方は、
容易にお金を返却できますので、
ハイパーインフレの直前に多額の借金をして、
土地や建物などを買っておけば有利にはなるわけです。

それにしても、このハイパーインフレが
いつ来るのかは、本当に予想が出来ません。
政府が債務不履行になりそうだなんて、
本人の口からは絶対言わないからです。

ですので、政府の口から「やばいですよ・・・」
という言葉が発せられなくても、
やはり、ハイパーインフレに備えて
一応は準備をしておいた方が良いかとは、思います~
(ハイパーインフレに備えて、
借金をすることはどうかとは思いますが・・・)

それと、前回、金の購入についてお書きしましたが、
金は下手をすると資産税をかけられて没収されてしまう
可能性もありますし、(地金を買う際には、購入した名義を
ちゃんと銀行などで控えてあります)
抜け駆けできないようになっておりますので、
注意が必要なのかもしれないです~

☆追伸☆

前回に引き続き、ズブのド素人の書いた
ただの一意見のカキコですので、↑の文をご覧に
なった方はその辺をどうぞご容赦くださいませ~

Posted by: 塩漬け姉さん | June 27, 2004 02:54 PM

塩漬け姉さん、こんばんは。

>金は下手をすると資産税をかけられて没収されてしまう
可能性もありますし、(地金を買う際には、購入した名義を
ちゃんと銀行などで控えてあります)
抜け駆けできないようになっておりますので、
注意が必要なのかもしれないです~

し、知りませんでした。
質問なのですが例えば田中貴金属などで
買っても銀行に知られるのですか?

話は戻りますが、ハイパーインフレって
もし日本で起きたら先進国で初めてのことです。
先進国ではじめての長期デフレを経験して、
またもや初のハイパーインフレ・・・・・・・。
続きは記事にします。

Posted by: のほほん | June 27, 2004 11:02 PM

>田中貴金属などで買っても銀行に知られるのですか?

銀行で買えばということだとおもうなり。
金取引に詳しい人いれば、ぽじずれも教えてほしいなり。
ところで・・・
うん年前に、田中貴金属でちっちゃな地金を売買手数料と
別に手数料はらって記念に買ったなり。
購入時申告の名前・生年月日・住所を書かされたなり。
売却時は、その控え提示を説明されたなり。
控え無いと、うちの店では買取せんし、他の金扱うとこでも。
そんなこと言われた記憶あるなり。
身分証明書提示したかどうかは、忘れたなり。
そんときの記憶に税務署につど提出と言わんかったなりが、
保存してあり、調査時に協力せんといけん・・・
などと聞いたような無いような・・・なり。
で、「金も預金といっしょなりか。」おもった記憶あるなり。

それから、金の値下がりと円高で哀しいなり。
最近ようやくなり・・・
ぽじずれは、ここでも、凍死家なり・・・(哀)

Posted by: ぽじずれ | June 27, 2004 11:54 PM

こんばんは、ぽじずれさん。

金を買うときに記名をするのは、
マネーロンダリング?対策でしょうね。
その結果、他人に金の保有状況を知られるのは
嫌ですね。順番は逆でしょうか(苦笑)。

今の日本人で、金の保有をしている人は
まだ少ないですよね。ポジズレさんは
先見の明があると思うのですが。

Posted by: のほほん | June 28, 2004 11:00 PM

遅レス申し訳ございません~
ぽじずれさんのおっしゃる通りです~
銀行で買えばということでした~

最近は金を買われる方も増えつつあるようです~
確か、固定資産税もかかりませんし・・・

しかしながら、不動産のように土地を有効活用して
それを元に収入を・・・と言うわけにはいきませんので、
金を買うのであれば、それこそ、数年か十数年
寝かせる覚悟で、余裕資金にて買うほうが良いのかも
しれません。

Posted by: 塩漬け姉さん | July 05, 2004 09:48 PM

塩漬け姉さん、こんばんは
はじめまして
HP拝見してます。今後ともよろしくです。

>不動産のように土地を有効活用

固定費がけっこうかかりますんで、
かなりの余裕資金が必要かと、ぽじずれはおもっとります。
固定資産税は必ず、メンテナンス・管理等の費用。
その昔は、これらのバカ高い費用を上回るいきおいで
値上がり・・・いわゆる含み益がバブリました。
自宅分しか不動産なければ、評価益増えても、
自宅処分し、全額もしくは差額をキャッシュで、
手元に置ける = 残せる か・・・
まず、この問題をクリアできるかどうか・・・
いざとなると、売り手側にかなり不利な処分しか・・・
とくに機動性に・・・とでも言うか。

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